基于浙江省2004—2016年水稻种植户地块层面的投入产出面板数据，采用动态面板系统GMM方法，实证检验土地面积、劳动投入、资本投入和农业产出等农业经营规模性指标对化肥施用强度的影响。结果表明：农户化肥施用有一定的惯性；劳动投入的减少将会导致化肥施用的替代性增加；资本投入的扩张将会增加化肥的施用强度，而土地面积和农业产出对化肥施用强度没有显著的影响。因而，要继续加强农户的施肥指导和培训，改变施肥习惯；要鼓励规模化经营农户采用劳动节约型生产设备和技术，合理引导资本投向，避免化肥施用的进一步增加。

Based on the panel data of the input and output of rice land in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016, the effects of some agricultural management scale index, such as the land area, the labor input, the capital input and the agricultural output, on the chemical fertilizer use have been tested by adopting the dynamic panel system GMM method. The results show that there was a certain pattern in the use of chemical fertilizer; the decrease of labor input led to the substitutive increase of chemical fertilizer use; the increase of capital input led to the increase of the intensity of chemical fertilizer use; however, the land area and the agricultural output had no significant effect on chemical fertilizer use. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the guidance and training of fertilizer use, change fertilization habit, encourage farmers to adopt labor-saving equipment and technologies, and guide the investment of capital, so as to avoid the further increase of chemical fertilizer use.

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