基于全国中西部5省419份建档立卡贫困户微观调查数据，测算了建档立卡贫困户摆脱贫困的信心，同时运用有序Logit回归模型从贫困户可持续生计资本和对扶贫政策的认知、评价两个方面选取变量分析其影响因素。结果表明：大部分受访者对脱贫致富比较有信心，仅有8.96%的受访者比较没信心，10.17%的受访者非常没信心，对脱贫致富没信心的建档立卡贫困户是“等、靠、要”的主体。户主的健康状况良好、接受过技能培训的贫困户脱贫致富信心更大；合理的人情往来支出有助于增加脱贫致富的信心，但是超出合理限度之后的人情往来支出越多，贫困户对脱贫致富越没有信心；对国家扶贫政策了解程度高的贫困户脱贫信心更大；认为扶贫资源分配公平的贫困户脱贫信心更大；对政策实施效果满意度高的贫困户脱贫信心更大。

Based on the micro survey data of 419 registered poor households in five provinces of central and Western China, the confidence of registered poor households to get rid of poverty is calculated. At the same time, using the ordered logit regression model, the influencing factors are analyzed from the sustainable livelihood capital of poor households and the cognition and evaluation of poverty alleviation policies. The empirical results show that: Most of the respondents are more confident about getting rid of poverty, while only 8.96 percent are less confident, and 10.17 percent are very unconfident. Poor households that have no confidence in getting rid of poverty are the main body of "waiting, relying and wanting". The healthier the household head, the greater the confidence of getting rid of poverty. Householders with skills training are more confident that they will be lifted out of poverty. Reasonable human contact expenditure helps to increase the confidence of getting rid of poverty, but the more the human contact expenditure exceeds the reasonable limit, the less confidence the poor households have in getting rid of poverty. The poor households with a high level of understanding of national poverty alleviation policies have greater confidence in getting rid of poverty. The poor households who believe that poverty alleviation resources are distributed fairly have greater confidence in getting rid of poverty. The poor households with high satisfaction with the implementation of the policy have greater confidence in getting rid of poverty.

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