基于2013—2017年的面板数据测算了我国15省区肉牛产业全要素生产率，并运用PVAR模型分析了农业机械化、政策扶持、交通条件、农村居民收入、牧草生产、粮食生产、乡镇畜牧兽医队伍建设和规模化养殖对肉牛产业全要素生产率变动的动态影响。结果表明：我国15个省区肉牛产业全要素生产率均值为1.015，年均增长1.50%，其中宁夏增长速度最快，云南降幅最大。西部地区肉牛产业全要素生产率最高，其次为东部地区，中部地区最低。农业机械化、政策扶持、交通条件、牧草生产、乡镇畜牧兽医队伍建设和规模化养殖对肉牛产业全要素生产率的增长产生积极影响，农村居民收入及粮食生产具有负面影响。

Based on the panel data from 2013 to 2017, the total factor productivity of beef cattle industry in 15 provinces of China is calculated, and the PVAR model is adopted to analyze agricultural mechanization, policy support, traffic conditions, rural residents' income, forage production, grain production, construction of township animal husbandry veterinary team, and the dynamic effects of large-scale breeding of beef cattle on total factor productivity changes. The results show that the total ftivity of beef cattle in 15 provinces and regions in China averaged 1.015, with an average annual growth at 1.50%, among which the growth ractor producate in Ningxia ranks the first and that in Yunnan the last. The western region boasts the highest total factor productivity of beef cattle while the eastern region comes out to be the second and the central region the lowest. Agricultural mechanization, policy support, traffic conditions, forage production, township animal husbandry and veterinary team construction and large-scale breeding exert positive influence on the growth of total factor productivity of beef cattle and they have negative effects on the rural residents' income and grain production.

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