以1999—2017年中国12个棉花主产省份数据为研究样本，考察了劳动力成本上升对棉花全要素生产率的影响，并检验了作物替代的中介效应。结果表明：劳动力成本上升促使了棉花生产者进行作物替代，有效缓解了劳动力成本上升对棉花全要素生产率的抑制效应；劳动力成本上升对棉花全要素生产率的作用存在区域异质性，作物替代的遮掩效应仅在内地棉区存在。西北内陆棉花种植者采取作物替代策略时，面临一些约束条件。进一步检验发现，棉花目标价格政策降低了新疆棉花生产者进行作物替代的动机，使得低效率的棉农能够在市场中生存，阻断了通过作物替代提升棉花全要素生产率的路径。

Based on the data collected from 12 major cotton producing provinces in China from 1999 to 2017, the impact of rising labor cost on total factor productivity of cotton has been examined and the intermediary effect of crop substitution has been verified. The results show that the rising labor cost urges the cotton producers to choose alternative crops, thus alleviating the inhibiting effect of labor cost increase on total factor productivity of cotton. The impact of it varies in different regions, and the suppressing effect of crop substitution is found only in the inland cotton areas. The cotton growers in northwestern inland area is restricted when adopting strategy of crop substitution. Further tests show that the target price policy of cotton reduces the motivation of cotton producers in Xinjiang to choose alternative crops, thus to guarantee the survival of the low-efficiency cotton farmers and block the path to increase total factor productivity of cotton through crop substitution.