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[摘要]
基于2004—2019年美国农业部WASDE报告关于中国玉米和大豆期初库存、产量等预测数据,运用动态条件相关多元GARCH模型,探究其对中国玉米和大豆期货价格波动率的影响,进而衡量期货市场的价格发现功能。结果表明:WASDE报告发布导致中国玉米和大豆期货价格发生显著变化,其中玉米价格在2015年和2016年波动最大,大豆价格在2007年和2017年波动最大,两者的条件方差分别增加了11.28和1.67,大豆波动幅度弱于玉米;由于玉米和大豆在种植决策上的竞争关系,在1%的显著性水平下,玉米和大豆收益率的条件相关系数为0.536,说明双方期货市场对对方的基本面预测信息存在极高的敏感度,因此具备良好的价格发现功能。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Based on the forecast data of China's corn and soybean opening stocks and production frin the WASDE report issued by the United States Department of Agriculture from 2004 to 2019 and adopting, a dynamic condition-dependent multiple GARCH model (DCC-MGARCH), the article explores the impact of the WASDE report on the fluctuations of corn and soybean futures prices in China, and to measure the price discovery function of the futures market. The study found that the release of the WASDE report caused significant changes in the prices of corn and soybean futures in China: with the price of corn fluctuating most dramatically in 2015 and 2016, and the soybean in 2007 and 2017, in which the variance of conditions for corn and soybean respectively increased by 11.28 and 1.67.The fluctuation of soybean was weaker than that of corn. Owing to the competition between corn and soybean in planting decisions, at a significance level of 1%, the conditional correlation coefficient of corn and soybean yields is 0.536, indicating that the futures markets of both parties are highly sensitive to the mutual fundamental forecast information ,thereby equipped with a good function of price discovery.
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