基于2001—2019年12个棉花主产区省级动态面板数据，采用Nerlove供给反应模型分析我国棉花补贴政策实施效果和替代作物比较效益变化对农户棉花生产决策的影响，结果表明：农户棉花生产具有一定惯性，不会轻易调整播种面积，上一期棉花播种面积对即期棉花生产有较强影响；棉花生产在短期内缺乏价格弹性，长期富有价格弹性，补贴政策增加了棉花播种面积对价格变动反应的敏感性；生产成本的提高会挤占棉花种植收益，农户会相应减少棉花种植面积；长期来看棉花生产对替代作物价格变动的反应灵敏度会增强，而棉花补贴政策一定程度上会降低农户改种其他作物的概率；棉花目标价格政策的实施对稳定棉花生产有积极作用。

Based on the provincial dynamic panel data of 12 major cotton producing areas from 2001 to 2019, the effect of China’s cotton subsidy policy and the impact of the comparative benefit change of alternative crops on farmers’ cotton production decisions have been analyzed by using Nerlove supply response model. The results show that farmers have a certain inertia in cotton production and they wouldn’t change the sowing area at will for the cotton producing areas of the previous term may have a strong effect on the present cotton production; cotton production is price inelastic in the short term but price elastic in the long term; subsidy policy increases the sensitivity of cotton sowing area to price changes; higher production costs would squeeze out the cotton plantation profits, so farmers would curtail the cotton sowing area; in the long run cotton production would be more responsive to price changes of alternative crops and the cotton subsidy policy would, to some extent, reduce the possibility of farmers switching to other crops; the implementation of the target price policy of cotton plays a positive role in stabilizing cotton production.

F323.7；F326.12