在传统理性预期商品储备模型基础上，将适应性预期引入商品储备模型，并采用门槛误差修正模型考察两种预期形成方式下国家储备肉政策对生猪价格波动的调控作用机制及效果。研究发现：市场主体预期形成方式不仅会影响储备肉政策的作用效果，还会改变其作用形式，理性预期下，储备肉政策以“即期冲击”形式作用于价格调整，适应性预期下，储备肉政策以“滞后冲击”形式作用于价格调整；以猪粮比价为启动信号的缓冲式储备肉政策对于平抑生猪价格波动发挥了“蓄水池”作用，当猪粮比价高于8.25或低于5.64时，政府储备吞吐使得生猪价格上涨和下跌的回调速度更快；收储政策的价格调控效果优于放储政策，使得价格上涨与价格下跌时的回调速度存在非对称性，呈现“易升难降”现象；无论是收储政策还是放储政策，理性预期下的价格调控效果都要优于适应性预期下的调控效果。

Based on the traditonal model of rational expectation commodity reserve and with the threshold error correction model the paper introduces the adaptive expectation into the commodity supply model and examines the regulatory mechanism and effects of the national meat reserve policy on the fluctuation of hog price under two expectations.The results show that the expectation formation of market players will not only affect the effect of the reserve meat policy, but will also change its operation mode . The reserve meat policy acts on price adjustments under rational expectations in the form of "spot shock" while under adaptive expectations, in the form of “lagged shocks”. Meanwhile,the buffer reserve meat policy with the hog-grain ratio as the starting signal acts as a “reservoir” in stabilizing the fluctuation of hog prices. When the hog-grain ratio is higher than 8.25 or lower than 5.64, the government's reserve throughput makes hog prices rise and fall much faster.Moreover, the regulatory effect of the collection-storage policy is better than that of the release-storage policy, causing asymmetry in the rebounding rate when the price rises or falls ,producing the phenomenon of “easy to rise and difficult to fall”. Whether with the collection-storage policy or with the release-storage policy, the effect of price control under rational expectations is better than adaptive expectations.

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