近年来羊肉价格波动频繁，突发疫情是一个重要影响因素。基于集成经验模态分解方法（EEMD）分析羊肉价格波动规律，并结合事件分析法研究小反刍兽疫和新冠肺炎疫情两大突发事件对羊肉价格的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明：羊肉价格波动可以分解为趋势分量、低频分量和高频分量三个部分，长期呈不断上涨趋势，中长期呈较大幅度和较长时间的上升或下降，短期波动频繁且幅度小。小反刍兽疫和新冠肺炎疫情都对肉羊产业造成了影响，但影响存在差异。小反刍兽疫加剧了羊肉市场的波动，一段时间后羊肉价格序列出现了断点，2014年后呈现连续几年的下降。新冠肺炎推动了羊肉价格的上涨，增加了羊肉市场的波动，但并未造成羊肉价格结构性变化，影响是短期的。小反刍兽疫对羊肉价格造成的影响相比新冠肺炎疫情更大、时间更长，主要是因为两次突发事件期间的政策调节、消费需求的影响程度等方面存在差异，从而对羊肉供给和需求的作用程度不同。此外，也与感染对象差异等疫情自身特点有关。

In recent years, the price of mutton has fluctuated frequently, and the sudden outbreak of epidemic is an important factor. Based on the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), mutton price fluctuation rule has been analyzed. Combined with the event analysis method, the impact of Peste des Petits Ruminants and COVID-19 on the price of mutton and mechanism have been studied. The results show that the price fluctuation of mutton can be divided into three parts: the trend mode, the low-frequency mode, and the high-frequency mode. It shows a continuous upward trend in the long term, a large increase or decrease in the medium and long term, and frequent and small fluctuations in the short term. Peste des petits ruminants and COVID-19 have both affected the sheep industry, but their impacts are different. Peste des petits ruminants has accelerated the fluctuation of mutton market. After a period of time, there was a break in the mutton price sequence. After 2014, the price has declined for several years. COVID-19 has increased the price of mutton and the fluctuation of mutton market. But it has not caused structural changes in mutton price and only has short-term effects. Peste des petits ruminants has a greater and longer-time impact on the mutton price than COVID-19. Because of the difference in policy adjustment and consumption demand, the two kinds of epidemics have different effects on mutton supply and demand. In addition, it is also related to the characteristics of epidemics, such as differences in the infected objects.

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