鉴于多元化经营会同时产生折价效应与溢价效应，利用2012—2019年35家农业上市公司的数据构建面板分位数模型以考察其在不同分位点上产生的经济后果。实证分析结果显示：不同分位点上多元化经营与绩效间均呈现负相关关系且高分位点上折价效应更为显著。而考虑到不同生命周期下企业管理能力、战略目标、资源条件等因素的差异对多元化经营产生的不同影响，按照企业生命周期进行异质性分析得出：处于成熟期的企业在较低的分位点上实施一定程度的多元化经营能够提高企业绩效，较高分位点上依然呈现显著的负相关关系；而成长期的企业多元化经营在不同分位点上均呈现折价效应。因此，农业上市公司实施多元化经营应秉持审慎的态度，且相比之下成熟期比成长期更适宜开展多元化经营。

Given that diversification produces the derogation effect and premium effect simultaneously, a panel quantile model based on the data of 35 agricultural listed companies from 2012 to 2019 is constructed to examine its economic consequences at different quantiles. The empirical analysis results show that a negative correlation can be found between diversification and performance at different quantiles and the derogation effect is more significant at high quantiles. Considering the impact on diversification caused by differences in factors such as enterprise management ability, strategic objectives and resource conditions in different life cycles, the heterogeneity analysis according to the enterprise life cycle shows that a mature enterprises can improve its enterprise performance by implementing a certain degree of diversification at a lower quantile, with a significant negative correlation at the higher quantile while the diversification of enterprises in the growth period shows derogation effect at different quantiles. Hence, it is better for agricultural listed companies to be scrupulous in implementing diversification, and by contrast it is more proper to carry out diversification in the maturity period than in the growth period.

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