基于1995—2020年贸易数据，利用HP滤波法、CMS模型分析了中国大麦进口贸易波动特征及影响因素，结果表明：中国大麦进口贸易波动方向发生了4次转换，由此划分出5个贸易阶段，且波动方向转换的频率持续加快，波动幅度持续扩大；中国大麦进口长期趋势值的快速增长及实际进口量的上下起伏是引起贸易波动的重要缘由；世界大麦出口规模的扩张难以有效填补中国大麦需求的快速增长，反而由于出口规模的不稳定引发了贸易波动；中国未能及时根据国内外市场供需情况调整进口来源，未能充分利用新兴大麦出口市场抑制贸易波动；中国具有较好的进口引力基础，但受到贸易政策等外部因素的影响，进口引力的作用效果未能与国内市场供需变化相匹配，进而经常引起贸易波动。因此，中国应适时调整进口市场结构，注重新兴市场的培育与运用；进一步发挥进口引力优势，联动国内外两个市场，更好满足国内大麦需求。

Based on the trade data from 1995 to 2020, the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of barley import trade in China are analyzed by using HP filter method and CMS model. The results show that China's barley import trade has changed its fluctuation direction four times, which can be divided into five trade stages, and the frequency of fluctuation direction conversion continues to accelerate and the fluctuation range continues to expand. The rapid growth of the long-term trend value of China's barley import and the fluctuation of the actual import volume are the important reasons for the trade fluctuation. The expansion of world barley export scale is difficult to compensate effectively the rapid growth of China's barley demand. On the contrary, the instability of export scale has triggered trade fluctuations. China failed to adjust its import sources timely according to the supply and demand of domestic and foreign markets, and failed to make full use of the emerging barley export market to curb trade fluctuations. Although China has a good foundation of import attraction, but affected by external factors like trade policies, the effect of import attraction can not match the changes of supply and demand in the domestic market, which often give rise to trade fluctuations. Hence, China should timely adjust the import market structure and pay attention to the cultivation and application of emerging markets, give full play to its advantages of import attraction and link the two markets at home and abroad to better meet the domestic demand for barley.

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