基于四川和河北两省8个原贫困县802份退耕农户的调研样本数据，先后采用Ordered logistic回归模型、倾向得分匹配法估计退耕补贴到期对退耕农户主观贫困的影响概率和影响效应，进一步对退耕补贴到期在不同组群间的影响效应进行异质性分析。研究结果显示：退耕补贴到期显著提高了退耕农户主观贫困的发生概率，对农户主观贫困影响的净效应显著为正；异质性分析发现，退耕补贴到期对经济困难和小规模退耕农户主观贫困影响的净效应更大。

Based on the data of 802 farmers participating in the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in eight former poor counties in Sichuan and Hebei provinces, the influence probability and effect of the farmland subsidy expiration on the subjective poverty of those farmers had been assessed by successively adopting the Ordered logistic regression model and propensity score matching method, and the heterogeneity of the impact effects of the farmland subsidy expiration in different groups had been furthered analyzed. The research shows that the farmland subsidy expiration significantly raises the probability of subjective poverty of the farmers, and the net effect of subjective poverty on farmers is distinctly positive. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the net effect of the farmland subsidy expiration on the economically distressed farmers and small-scale farmers is more significant.

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