基于2002—2020年相关数据，利用TVP-VAR-SV模型，在考虑货币创造和金融市场等因素的基础上，考察了商业银行信贷波动的时变特征和宏观审慎政策的调控应对措施。结果表明：货币创造是信贷波动的主要驱动因素；货币创造与金融市场对信贷波动的影响在程度、方向、持续时间等方面呈现阶段性差异；宏观审慎政策应在与货币政策充分协调的基础上，通过识别银行信贷波动的主要诱发因素，在经济过热和遇冷时，采取具有针对性与差异化的宏观审慎政策调控手段，充分发挥杠杆率工具的基础性特点和流动性监管工具的高效性特点，形成有效配合。

Based on the relevant data from 2002 to 2020, this paper uses the TVP-VAR-SV model to examine the time-varying characteristics of commercial banks’ credit fluctuations and the countermeasures of macro-prudential policies on the basis of considering factors such as money creation and financial markets. The results show that monetary creation is the main driving force of credit fluctuation; the impacts of monetary creation and financial market on credit fluctuation vary in stages in terms of degree, direction and duration. On the basis of full coordination with monetary policy, macro-prudential policy should identify the main inducing factors of bank credit fluctuations, adopt targeted and differentiated macro-prudential policy control measures when the economy is overheating and severe cold, give full play to the basic characteristics of leverage ratio tools and the efficient characteristics of liquidity supervision tools, and constitute effective cooperation.

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