基于全国9省18县农户调查数据，采用双重差分模型实证分析林权改革对农户非农就业的影响及作用机制。研究发现：林权改革对农户非农就业、非农务工和非农创业具有显著正向效应，且通过稳健性检验、平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验等方法证实，结果具有可靠性。从动态效应来看，农户的行为决策与投入决策具有一致性和持续性。机制分析表明，林地转出和信贷可得性在林权改革影响农户非农就业中具有中介效应，从农户非农就业类型来看，此中介效应只显著存在于农户非农创业过程中，对农户非农务工并不成立。此外，生计策略在林权改革影响农户非农就业、非农务工和非农创业过程中表现出正向调节效应。

Based on the survey data of 18 counties in 9 provinces, the impact and the mechanism of the reform of collective forestland tenure on rural households’ off-farm employment have been analyzed empirically by adopting difference in difference model. The study found that the reform of collective forestland tenure has a significant positive effect on rural households’ off-farm employment, off-farm work and off-farm entrepreneurship, and the reliability of the empirical results have been verified through robustness test, parallel trend test and placebo test. The analysis of its mechanism shows that forest land transfer and credit availability have a mediating effect on the impact of the forest rights reform on rural households’ off-farm employment. From the perspective of the types of off-farm employment, the mediating effect is only significant in the process of off-farm entrepreneurship, but not in the off-farm work. Besides, livelihood strategy shows positive moderating effects on the impact of the forest rights reform on the process of rural households’ off-farm employment, off-farm work and off-farm entrepreneurship.

国家自然科学基金面上项目（71873043；71673066）