基于2010—2019年省级面板数据，从绿色发展、产业产出、科技进步、物质装备和经营管理水平五个维度遴选出21个二级指标构建畜牧业现代化发展评价体系，运用德尔菲法、Critic法、多指标综合评价模型和障碍因子诊断模型测度中国31个省份畜牧业现代化发展水平，探究其主要障碍因子。结果表明：2010—2019年中国畜牧业现代化发展水平提升21.92%，年均提高了2.23个百分点，时间上具有向好发展态势，其中绿色发展水平得分最高，科技进步水平和物质装备水平整体得分较低。全国畜牧业现代化发展水平呈现出显著的空间非均衡性特征，东部最优、中部次之、西部最差，发展水平较高的省区呈现“两区两带”分布格局。科研投入强度、人均肉蛋奶占有量、劳动生产率、饲料粮保障能力和畜牧兽医服务人员匹配度是影响当前中国畜牧业现代化发展水平提升的主要障碍因子。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019, 21 secondary indicators of evaluation system of modernization development of animal husbandry have been selected from five dimensions-green development, industrial output, scientific and technological progress, material equipment and management level. By using Delphi method, Critic method and multi-index comprehensive evaluation model, the modernization development level of animal husbandry in 31 provinces has been measured and the obstacles factors have been explored. The research shows that the modernization development level of China’s animal husbandry increased by 21.92% from 2010 to 2019, with an average annual increase of 2.23%, which shows a positive trend of development. Among the five dimensions, the green development level scored the highest while the overall scores of scientific and technological progress and material equipment level were lower. The modernization level of animal husbandry of the whole country presented a significant feature of spatial disequilibrium: the eastern region was the highest, the central region the second and the western region the lowest. The provinces with higher development level showed a distribution pattern of “two regions and two belts.” The intensity of scientific research input, per capita meat, eggs and milk consumption, labor productivity, feed grain guarantee ability and the matching degree of animal husbandry and veterinary service personnel are the main obstacle factors that affect the promotion of the development level of China’s animal husbandry modernization.

F326.3

国家自然科学基金重点项目（72033009）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目（ASTIP-IAED-2020-01）