防范耕地撂荒对保障国家粮食安全至关重要。在理论分析农机服务市场发育如何影响耕地撂荒的基础上，依托中国农村家庭追踪调查（CRHPS）数据，采用Tobit模型进行实证检验。研究发现：农机服务市场发育有助于抑制耕地撂荒，且使用工具变量法处理内生性问题和进行一系列稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立；农机服务市场发育会通过促进机械对人力的替代、农户农业收入的增加和提高耕地流转市场的活跃度来降低耕地撂荒程度；平坦的地形和良好的农机作业道路能够强化农机服务市场发育对耕地撂荒的抑制作用，耕地细碎化程度上升则会弱化抑制作用。为有效依托农机服务市场发育遏制耕地撂荒，应建立健全农机服务购买补贴体系，深入开展农机作业道路建设和坡耕地改造，加强农村集体经济组织和农民专业合作社的统筹能力。

Preventing farmland abandonment is crucial to national food security. How the development of agricultural machinery service market affects farmland abandonment has been theoretically analyzed by using the data of China Rural Household Panel Survey and empirically tested by using Tobit model. The results show that the development of agricultural machinery service market is beneficial to reduce farmland abandonment, and this finding is still valid after the instrumental variable method is used to deal with endogeneity problems and a series of robustness tests are conducted. The development of agricultural machinery service market could reduce farmland abandonment rate through promoting the replacement of manpower by machinery, increasing rural household’s agricultural income and increasing farmland transfer market activities. Flat terrain conditions and good road conditions for agricultural machinery operation could strengthen the inhibiting effect of the development of agricultural machinery service market on farmland abandonment while the increase of cultivated land fragmentation would weaken the inhibition effect. In order to make good of agricultural machinery service market development to curb farmland abandonment, it is necessary to establish and improve the agricultural machinery service purchase subsidy system, continue to carry out the construction of roads for agricultural machinery operation and reformation of sloping farmland and strengthen the overall planning capacity of rural collective economic organizations and farmers’ professional cooperatives.

F323.2

国家社会科学基金一般项目（21BGJ057）