基于2015―2021年省级面板数据，利用二次近乎理想的需求系统（QUAIDS）模型估计城乡居民食物需求弹性，并进一步基于食物价格分析城乡居民饮食结构优化与农业碳减排的协同路径。研究发现：就单类食物价格变化来看，蔬菜水果价格降低不具碳减排效应，提高猪肉价格具有碳减排效应，但会减少居民动物性食物消费总量，只有水产品价格下降或牛羊肉价格上涨可以优化居民饮食结构、促进农业碳减排；从多类食物价格变化组合效应来看，降低蔬菜水果和水产品价格，并同比例提高猪肉、牛羊肉价格可以在增加植物和动物性食物消费总量的情况下，优化居民饮食结构、促进农业碳减排；相同情境下，城镇居民人均碳减排绝对量略大于农村居民。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2015 to 2021, the demand elasticity of food for urban and rural residents has been estimated by using the QUAIDS model and the collaborative paths of diet structure optimization and agricultural carbon emission reduction have been further analyzed by utilizing the food prices. The research shows that in terms of individual food price changes, cutting down vegetables and fruits prices can not lead to carbon emission reduction; raising pork prices may reduce carbon emission, but also reduce total animal food consumption of residents; only a drop in the price of aquatic products or an increase in the price of beef and mutton can optimize the diet structure of residents, and promote agricultural carbon emissions reduction. In terms of the combination effect of the price changes of various food, lowering the prices of vegetables, fruits and aquatic products and raising the prices of pork, beef and mutton in the same proportion will increase total consumption of plant and animal foods, and at the same time optimize residents’ diet structure and promote agricultural carbon emission reduction. In the same situation, the absolute amount of carbon emission reduction per capita of urban residents is slightly greater than that of rural residents.

F327；F124.7

国家社会科学基金重大招标项目（21&ZD101）