在双碳目标战略时代背景下，探究低碳政策对家庭农场创业的溢出效应，对于加快乡村生态振兴具有重要意义。基于2005—2020年286个地级及以上城市的面板数据，以低碳政策为准自然实验，使用渐进双重差分方法探究低碳政策对家庭农场创业水平的影响及其作用机理，并采取倾向匹配得分、工具变量等方法进行了稳健性检验。研究发现：低碳政策会对家庭农场新增创业数量造成冲击，该影响主要受到调整产业结构、制约经营规模和提升绿色技术创新的中介作用。异质性分析发现：低碳政策的冲击效应对种植业区、东部地区、粮食主销区以及非资源型城市尤为显著。进一步讨论发现：低碳政策的环保规制压力有利于弱质家庭农场的有序退出，助力“以量换质”目标；低碳政策若与电子商务试点共同实施，则会削弱其对家庭农场创业水平的影响，提升乡村创业韧性。

Under the background of the era of dual carbon strategy, it is of great significance to explore the spillover effect of low-carbon policy on family farm entrepreneurship for accelerating the revitalization of rural ecology. Based on the panel data of 286 cities at or above the prefecture level from 2005 to 2020, taking the low-carbon policy as a quasi natural experiment, this paper uses the gradual double difference method to explore the impact of low-carbon policy on the entrepreneurial level of family farms and its mechanism, and uses the propensity matching score, instrumental variables and other methods to test the robustness. The study found that the low-carbon policy will have an impact on the number of new businesses in family farms, which is mainly achieved by adjusting the industrial structure, restricting the operation scale, and enhance the role of green technology innovation. Heterogeneity analysis found that the impact effect of the low-carbon policy was particularly significant in the planting area, the eastern region, the main grain sales area and the non-resource-based cities. Further discussion found that the environmental regulation pressure of low-carbon policy is conducive to the orderly exit of weak family farms, and helps to achieve the goal of “quantity for quality”. Furthermore, if the low-carbon policy is implemented together with the e-commerce pilot, it will weaken its impact on the overall entrepreneurial level of family farms and enhance the resilience of rural entrepreneurship.

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湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目（22YBA102）