已有关于农业种植结构“趋粮化”研究忽视粮食作物的品种结构差异和区域差异，存在以户为单位度量劳动力外流的选择差错及要素替代发生主体不一致带来的行为逻辑分析偏误。基于全国农村固定观察点2004—2018年村级面板数据，实证分析劳动力外流对农业种植结构“趋粮化”的影响及其异质性。结果表明：相悖于现有文献的主流观点，整体上农村劳动力外流对粮食种植比例的影响不显著，水稻主产区农村劳动力外流甚至会显著抑制种植结构“趋粮化”，这一结论经过多重稳健性检验依然成立。原因在于，劳动力外流显著促进了土地流转和规模经营，强化了水稻种植“双改单”和复种指数下降的趋势。

The existing studies on the grain-oriented planting structure ignore the variety structure differences and regional differences of food crops, and there are some errors in the selection of household as the unit to measure labor outflow and behavioral logic analysis errors caused by the inconsistency of the main body of factor substitution. Based on the panel data from fixed observation points in rural areas nationwide from 2004 to 2018, the heterogeneous impact and mechanism of labor outflow on the grain-oriented planting structure have been studied empirically. The results indicate that, contrary to the mainstream views in existing literature, the influence of labor outflow on the proportion of grain planting is not significant on the whole. The labor outflow in major rice producing areas even restrains the grain-oriented planting structure obviously. The findings are testified by multiple robustness tests. The reason lies in that labor outflow massively increases land transfer and scale management, thus giving momentum to the change from double cropping rice to single cropping rice and the decrease in multiple cropping index.

F301.0

国家社会科学基金一般项目（23BGL264）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目（10-IAED-01-2023）