以抵抗力、适应力、变革力三个维度为基础构建粮食生产韧性指标体系测度中国及各省域的粮食生产韧性，并利用2011—2022年省级面板数据和双向固定效应模型实证检验农业生产性服务发展对粮食生产韧性的影响效应及其作用机制，结果表明：中国粮食生产韧性呈逐年提升态势，但省际间分异明显；农业生产性服务可以显著促进粮食生产韧性，其中规模化效应和专业化效应是主要的作用机制；分维度实证表明，农业生产性服务能显著提升粮食生产韧性的抵抗力和变革力，但对适应力起到一定程度的抑制作用；异质性分析显示，农业生产性服务在北方省份的促进作用要大于南方省份，在东部地区的促进作用比中西部地区更加显著。

Based on three dimensions of resistance, adaptability and transformative power, an index system of grain production resilience has been constructed to measure the resilience of grain production of China and various provinces. By using the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022 and two-way fixed effects model, the effect and mechanism of agricultural productive service development on grain production resilience have been empirically analyzed. The research shows that food production resilience in China has been increasing over years, but the growth rate varies in different provinces. Agricultural productive service can significantly enhance the resilience of food production and the scale effect and specialization effect are the main mechanism. The dimensional empirical analysis shows that agricultural productive service could dramatically improve the resistance and transformative power, but inhibit adaptability to some extent. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the promotional effect of agricultural productive service in northern provinces is greater than that in southern provinces, and the promotional effect in eastern regions is more significant than that in central and western regions.

F224；F326.11

国家社会科学基金重大项目（23&ZD121）；国家自然科学基金项目（72063003，71963005）