政策性农业信贷担保可以较好地应对农业“三项补贴”政策效应减弱和农村金融市场失灵的问题。本文基于2011—2020年湖南省14个地级市面板数据，运用多时点双重差分法进行检验，研究发现，政策性农业信贷担保能显著促进粮食增产，该结论经平行趋势检验、敏感性检验和安慰剂检验等一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制检验表明，政策性农业信贷担保通过信贷支持和经营主体培育机制显著促进粮食增产；异质性分析发现，政策性农业信贷担保对稻谷增产作用显著，而对其他种类粮食增产的影响效果并不显著。

Policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee could effectively address the challenges of the weakening policy effect on “three agricultural subsidies” policy and rural financial market failure. Based on the panel data of 14 prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province from 2011 to 2020, the effect of policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee on grain production increase has been tested by using multi-time point difference-in-difference method. The study shows that policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee could significantly increase grain production. The conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test, sensitivity test and placebo test. Mechanism test shows that policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee could significantly increase grain production through improving credit accessibility and enhancing capacities of agricultural operating entities. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the effect of policy-oriented agricultural credit guarantee on rice production increase is significant while the effect on the production increase of other kinds of grain is not obvious.

F124；F830

湖南省社会科学基金项目（23YBA108）