本文构建了一个返乡创业试点政策影响新型农业经营主体培育的理论分析框架，并将返乡创业试点政策作为一项准自然实验，采用2008—2021年中国1 169个县域数据和双重机器学习模型考察返乡创业试点政策对新型农业经营主体培育的影响，并进一步分析了企业引入、消费释放和电商培育在其中的作用。结果发现，返乡创业试点政策能促进新型农业经营主体培育，且在经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。异质性分析表明，返乡创业试点政策的新型农业经营主体培育效应在中西部县域、粮食主产县和劳动力输出县更为显著。机制检验表明，返乡创业试点政策能通过促进企业引入、消费释放和电商培育来加快新型农业经营主体培育。上述研究结论为进一步优化返乡创业政策并促进新型农业经营主体培育提供了重要的理论解释与经验证据。

A theoretical analytical framework for the influence of the returning-home entrepreneurship pilot policy on the cultivation of new-type agricultural business entities has been constructed. With the pilot policy being a quasi-natural experiment subject, the policy’s impact has been examined by utilizing the county-level data from 1,169 counties in China between 2008 and 2021 and using a double machine learning model. Further analysis has explored the roles of enterprise introduction, consumption release, and e-commerce development. The results show that the returning-home entrepreneurship pilot policy promotes the cultivation of new-type agricultural business entities, and the conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy’s cultivation effect is more significant in central and western counties, major grain-producing counties, and labor-exporting counties. Mechanism tests demonstrate that the policy accelerates this cultivation by promoting enterprise introduction, consumption release, and e-commerce cultivation. The research findings provide crucial theoretical explanations and empirical evidence for optimizing returning-home entrepreneurship policies and promoting the cultivation of new-type agricultural business entities.

F323.2；F279.2

国家社会科学基金后期资助项目（24FJLB- 020）；湖南省研究生科研创新基金项目（LXBZZ2024055）