土地经营权流转政策的目标导向是降低农业生产成本和促进农业增效，实现一举两得，但现实中农产品生产总成本却持续增长，成本利润率持续下降。基于交互固定效应模型和30个省域、32类农产品2012—2022年的数据，实证分析土地经营权流转对农产品生产的宏观效应。研究发现，土地经营权流转存在节本效应，却没有增效效应。土地经营权流转通过增加规模经营主体的市场博弈能力和促使机械对人工的替代，降低物质与服务费用和人工成本，实现节本效应。但是这一影响机制存在显著的种类异质性，土地经营权流转不利于粮油产量提升。因此，基于粮食数量安全需要着重考虑土地经营权流转政策的目标导向。土地经营权流转在粮食主产区不存在节本效应，而在产销平衡和主销区存在显著的节本效应。

The land management rights transfer policy aims to achieve two goals simultaneously—reducing agricultural production costs and promoting agricultural efficiency. However, in reality, the total production costs of agricultural products have been continuously increasing, while the cost-profit margin has been continuously declining. Based on the interactive fixed effects model and data of 32 categories of agricultural products from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022, the macro effect of land management rights transfer on agricultural product production has been empirically analyzed. The study finds that land management rights transfer exerts a cost reduction effect, but does not have an efficiency-enhancing effect. It reduces material, service and labor costs by enhancing the market bargaining power of large-scale farming entities and promoting the replacement of labor by machinery, thereby achieving the cost reduction. However, the impact mechanism exhibits significant category heterogeneity: land management rights transfer is not conducive to the yield growth of grain and oil crop. Therefore, considering the grain quality security, the policy orientation of land management rights transfer must be carefully reconsidered. Furthermore, the cost-saving effect varies by region: it does not exert a significant cost reduction effect in major grain-producing areas, but exerts a significant cost reduction effect in grain production-consumption balanced areas and major grain-consuming areas.

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国家社会科学基金后期资助项目（24FJYB058）；重庆市社会科学规划博士项目（2024BS072）；西南大学2035先导计划（SWUPilotPlan025）