通过构建“新质生产力—公共服务均等化—城乡收入差距”分析框架，利用2014—2023年中国省份面板数据，实证检验新质生产力对城乡居民收入差距的影响，以及公共服务均等化在该影响中的调节效应。结果发现：发展新质生产力具有显著的城乡收入差距收敛效应，新质生产力低值组的边际收敛效应高于高值组，或存在效应边际递减现象；新质生产力对城乡不同类型收入差距的影响存在“双向分化”，其有助于缩小城乡的工资性收入差距、转移净收入差距，但会扩大城乡经营与财产性收入的差距；公共服务均等化不仅在直接缩小城乡收入差距方面发挥基础性作用，更能通过调节机制增大新质生产力的收敛效应，这种“直接减差”与“协同增效”的双重效应在缩小城乡不同类型收入差距中高度趋同，既能放大新质生产力所带来的积极效应，又能在一定程度上抑制其潜在的分化效应。

This study develops an integrated analytical framework linking new quality productive forces (NQPF), public service equalization, and the urban–rural income gap to examine how structural transformation shapes income inequality in China. Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2014 to 2023, the study investigates the effects of NQPF and the moderating role of public service equalization. The results show that NQPF exerts a significant convergence effect on the urban–rural income gap, with stronger marginal effects observed in regions at lower levels of development, indicating diminishing returns. However, its distributional consequences are heterogeneous: while NQPF reduces disparities in wage income and transfer income between urban and rural regions, it simultaneously widens gaps in business and property income, revealing a pattern of dual divergence. Furthermore, public service equalization not only directly mitigates income inequality but also amplifies the convergence effect of NQPF through a complementary moderating mechanism. This dual role—combining direct redistribution with synergistic enhancement—operates consistently across different income categories, enhancing positive effects while partially offsetting inequality-expanding tendencies.

F124.7；D630

云南省重大科技专项计划项目（XHNY2023006）