农业转型的本质是农业生产中主导性生产要素的更替与增长动力源的转换。本文基于农业工业化模型所揭示的阶段演进规律提出了发展阶段对应假说、要素驱动更替假说和技术进步转换假说，并利用1961—2022年179个国家和地区的面板数据进行检验，在要素产出弹性及相对密集度证据的基础上系统刻画了全球农业转型的异质性图景与发展阶段序列。研究发现：不同发展阶段的经济体呈现出与其收入水平相对应的农业转型阶段特征；落后经济体的农业增长仍主要依赖劳动与土地要素，而发达经济体已转向资本与技术进步双轮驱动；在人口稠密、资本稀缺的经济体中，农业资本往往优先投向生物与化学技术；多数发达经济体已跨越要素依赖阶段，全要素生产率成为农业增长的主导动力。据此，特定经济体农业治理的政策设计、执行与评估须适配其相对要素密集度演化阶段，实现“阶段适配、精准施策”。

Agricultural transformation is essentially characterized by the replacement of leading production factors and the transition of growth drivers. Based on the stage dynamics of the agricultural industrialization model, we put forward three hypotheses—the development stage correspondence hypothesis, the factor-driver substitution hypothesis, and the technological progress transition hypothesis—and empirically test them using panel data of 179 countries and regions from 1961 to 2022. To test these hypotheses, we systematically depict the heterogeneous landscape and developmental sequencing of global agricultural transformation, drawing on factor output elasticity and relative factor intensities. The results show that economies at different development stages exhibit distinct agricultural transformation characteristics that match their respective income levels: agricultural growth in underdeveloped economies still relies predominantly on labor and land, whereas advanced economies are driven jointly by capital and technological progress. We also find that in densely populated and capital-scarce economies, agricultural capital tends to be channeled into biological and chemical technologies., and most advanced economies have moved past the factor-dependent phase, with total factor productivity emerging as the leading engine of agricultural growth. On these grounds, the design, implementation, and evaluation of agricultural governance policies must be aligned with the evolving stage of relative factor intensity, thereby achieving “stage-adapted and precision-targeted governance.”

F310；F312.2

中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2024T17062)；四川省哲学社会科学基金研究阐释党的二十届三中全会和省委十二届六次全会精神专项重点项目(SCJJ25QH15)