构建农户生产决策模型，基于2023年中国家庭金融调查数据，考察不同农地流转契约下经营权稳定性对农业长期投资的影响及其信贷机制。研究发现：农地流转契约形式越正式、期限越长越有利于增强农地经营权稳定性，进而显著促进农户的农业长期投资。口头协议的投资激励效应约为书面合同的四分之一。异质性分析表明，对于专业农户、转入面积较大及无信贷需求的农户，该政策的促进作用更强。经营权稳定性主要通过增强农户投资信心发挥作用。信贷传导机制具有条件性：正式且长期的流转契约能有效缓解农户的需求型信贷约束并提高正规信贷规模，但这一机制仅在金融市场化水平较高的地区成立。

By constructing a household production decision-making model and utilizing data from the 2023 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study examines how management stability under different farmland transfer contracts affects long-term agricultural investment and the underlying credit mechanism. The findings reveal that the more formal the farmland transfer contracts and the longer their term, the more they contribute to enhancing the stability of farmland management rights, which in turn significantly promotes farmers’ long-term agricultural investment. The investment incentive effect of oral agreements is approximately one quarter of that of written contracts. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promoting effect of this policy is stronger for specialized farm households, those with larger areas of transferred-in farmland, and farmers without credit demand. Stability of management rights promotes investment primarily by strengthening farmers’ investment confidence. The credit transmission mechanism is conditional in that formal and long-term farmland transfer contracts can effectively alleviate farmers’ demand-side credit constraints and enhance their access to formal credit; however, this effect is observed only in regions with higher levels of financial marketization.

F323.9；F301.1

国家社会科学基金重点项目（20AJY011）