通过构建文化产业与经济高质量发展适配关系的理论框架和指标体系，以湖南省为例，实证分析了2012—2023年两者适配关系的时序演变及影响因素。研究发现：文化产业与经济高质量发展水平均呈“波动上升”趋势，以2016年为时间节点，两者的适配关系经历了从“并行同步增长”到“增减格局分化”的显著转变，经济高质量发展水平相较于文化产业的发展差距呈逐步扩大之势；文化产业与经济高质量发展的适配度呈“小幅增长”态势，适配关系类型整体表现为“较不适配”到“基本适配”的跨越提升，“基本适配”类型占据主导地位，但稳定性相对欠佳；文化产业与经济高质量发展适配关系演变的因子贡献度具有显著的时间演替性，前三位影响因子的单体贡献强度与总体贡献强度均呈上升态势，其组合形态经历了“协调发展、共享发展和政策支持”“资源基础、共享发展和创新发展”“市场需求、资源基础和开放发展”的阶段性变迁；人力资本和开放发展整体上仍是阻滞文化产业与经济高质量发展适配关系优化的关键短板。

By constructing a theoretical framework and evaluation index system for the compatibility between the cultural industry and high-quality economic development, this study takes Hunan Province as an example to empirically examine the temporal evolution of their compatibility and its influencing factors from 2012 to 2023. The findings demonstrate that the development level of the cultural industry and high-quality economy present an overall trend of "fluctuating upward". Taking 2016 as the critical temporal node, the compatibility relationship between the two shifted significantly from a pattern of “parallel and synchronized growth” to one characterized by divergent growth trajectories where the gap between the level of high-quality economic development and cultural industry development has been gradually widening. The compatibility degree between the cultural industry and high-quality economic development showed a modest but steady improvement with the compatibility type evolving from “relatively incompatible” to “basically compatible”. Although the “basically compatible” type became dominant, its stability remained relatively weak. Furthermore, the contribution of influencing factors to the evolution of this compatibility relationship demonstrated significant temporal dynamics. Both the individual contribution intensity and the overall contribution intensity of the top three influencing factors show a rising trend over time, and their dominant factor combinations evolved through three successive stages: “coordinated development, shared development and policy support” ; “resource endowment, shared development and innovation-driven development” and “market demand, resource endowment and opening-up”. Notably, human capital and opening-up development remain crucial constraints hindering the further optimization of the compatibility between the cultural industry and high-quality economic development.

F062.9

湖南省社会科学基金重大项目（24ZWA19）