基于2010—2023年中国粮食主产区1466个县域面板数据，运用多时点双重差分模型与双重机器学习模型实证检验农村集体产权制度改革对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。研究发现，农村集体产权制度改革能够显著促进农业全要素生产率增长。该结论历经一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立，且改革的政策效应受地方政府政策关注度的正向调节。机制检验显示，农村集体产权制度改革通过信贷支持与技术进步促进农业全要素生产率增长。异质性分析发现，改革的政策效应存在异质性，在农业强县以及基层组织密度较高的县域更加显著。

Based on the panel data from 1466 counties in China’s major grain-producing regions from 2010 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the impact of rural collective property rights system reform on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth by employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model and a double machine learning (DML) model. The study finds that the reform of rural collective property right system significantly promotes the growth of agricultural total factor productivity. The conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness checks. Moreover, the policy effect of the reform is positively moderated by local government policy attention. Mechanism analysis reveals that the reform facilitates agricultural total factor productivity growth through credit support and technological progress. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects vary across regions, with more pronounced effects observed in agriculturally strong counties and counties with higher grassroots organizational density.

F321.32

国家社会科学基金一般项目（24BJY165）；湖南省社会科学基金重大项目（2023JJ30312）；湖南省研究生科研创新项目（CX20251145）